Forex Raten 2012 13

Geschrieben von admin am 28. Januar 2017 8211 7:37 pm China8217s jüngsten Kapitalkontrollen, die am 1. Januar eingeführt wurden, haben eine sofortige Wirkung, mit weniger chinesischen Käufern in der Lage, Immobilien im Ausland zu kaufen. Von London nach Melbourne, Vancouver nach Sydney, sind die chinesischen Bürger kämpfen, um Eigentum Transaktionen in einigen der world8217s größten Immobilien Blasen zu schließen. Internationale Experten glauben, dass der Nachfragerückgang in Australien am stärksten zu spüren ist, der größte Begünstigte des Kapitalabflusses. Nach Angaben von Christopher Todd in der Beratungsfirma Basis Point genehmigte Australien im Geschäftsjahr Ende Juni 2015 A24 Milliarden von Immobilieninvestitionen aus China, wobei die neuesten Zahlen zur Verfügung stehen, so dass Australien mit Abstand das größte Ziel für chinesische Käufer ist. China8217s Währung hat auf acht Jahre Tiefs auf der Rückseite eines Rekord-Bremsen Kapital Flug gestürzt. Die Devisenreserven wurden auf 3,052 Billionen gesenkt, die niedrigste in fast 6 Jahren. Um die Flut zu stürzen, verschärfte China die Kontrollen an Devisen, einen Tag vor dem Rücksetzen der Quoten am 1. Januar. In einer Erklärung von China8217s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), sagte es, dass es wollte, um Geldwäsche und illegale ausländische Immobilienkäufe zu stampfen. Während die Regulierungsbehörde die Quote von 50.000 Yuan (A9.600) Fremdwährung, pro Person, pro Jahr unverändert verlassen hat, hat es deutlich erhöht Offenlegung Anforderungen. Chinesische Staatsbürger müssen jetzt das Geld versprechen, das nicht für ausländische Einkäufe von Eigentum, Wertpapieren oder Lebensversicherungen verwendet wird. Sie müssen auch detaillierte Berichte über das, was das Geld verwendet werden. Die Banken werden nun alle überseeischen Transaktionen von einer Person über 10.000 Yuan (A2.000) gemeldet. Bloomberg berichtet über die Verzweiflung: Wenn seine zu schwierig, Im out, sagte Herr Zheng, 66, ein pensionierter Beamter in Shanghai, die seinen Vornamen zu geben, um zu vermeiden, regulatorische Kontrolle zu geben. Er kann einen 2.4 Million Yuan (348.903) Hauptkauf im westlichen Melbourne aufgeben, sogar nachdem er eine 300.000 Yuan Ablagerung letztes August herausragt. Hes wegen einer weiteren großen Zahlung nächsten Monat zu machen. Für Zheng, die Entscheidung, ob zu Fuß weg von seinem Melbourne Eigentum oder Risiko brechen Chinas Devisen-Regeln ist schnell naht. Hes geplant, um weitere 800.000 Yuan nach Australien Ende Februar zu decken, um den Rest seiner Anzahlung zu decken. Mit dem Lunar New Year ab heute, eine Armee von chinesischen Urlauber sind in der Luft Richtung Melbourne und Sydney als lokale Immobilien-Agenten für die 8220golden week8221 vorbereiten. Die Agenten sehen bereits einen erheblichen Rückgang der Nachfrage. Viele chinesische Ansichtseigenschaft mit einer Reisegruppe, aber nur die Hälfte der Anzahl der Busse sind in diesem Jahr gefüllt. Ray White Balwyn Regisseur Helen Yan sagte der Domain, weniger chinesischen Touristen würden Jagd für Eigentum in diesem Jahr. Ein positives, um von all diesen 8211 kommen sie haben mehr Zeit, um einen echten Urlaub in Australien zu genießen. Glückliches chinesisches Neujahr. Geschrieben von admin am 17. Januar 2017 8211 19:15 Uhr Rating-Agentur Fitch hat Australien8217s Banken auf eine negative Kredit-Watch, zitiert eine Zunahme der makroökonomischen Risiken aus der Eigenschaft Asset Blase platziert. Fitch zeigte ein wichtiges Risiko für das Bankensystem war die Banken8217 Exposition gegenüber dem überhitzten Immobilienmarkt. Von besonderem Interesse ist eine starke Zunahme der Haushaltsschulden im Verhältnis zu den Haushaltseinkommenseinkommen 8211 zu einer Zeit, in der Australien8217s Haushaltsschulden im Verhältnis zu den Haushaltseinkommenseinkommen auf einer Staffelung von 187 Prozent, einem der höchsten Niveaus der Welt, sitzt. Die Haushaltschuld ist hoch und steigt im Verhältnis zu den verfügbaren Einkommen, so dass die Kreditnehmer empfindlich auf Veränderungen des Arbeitsmarktes und der Zinssätze reagieren, erklärte Fitch-Analyst Andrea Jaehne. Der Druck von mehreren Fronten hat australische Banken gezwungen, die Zinssätze in den letzten Monaten nach Aufwärtsbewegungen rund um den Globus zu wandern. Aber mit einem erheblichen Niveau der Haushalt Schulden, werden australische Haushalte werden die Hauptlast der Zinserhöhungen zu fühlen, mehr als andere Länder mit viel mehr umsichtigen Haushalt Schulden Ebenen. Fitch äußert sich auch besorgt über wachsende Arbeitsplatzverluste. Ungewöhnlich hohe Wohnkosten haben die Löhne hoch in Australien gezwungen, so dass das Land eine hohe Kosten Wirtschaft und ein kämpfen, um in einem globalen freien Markt zu konkurrieren. Dies hat die Schließung von kompletten Branchen verursacht und beschleunigte das Offshoring einer wachsenden Anzahl von Arbeitsplätzen, die sehr Arbeitsplätze, die erforderlich waren, um die hohe Haushaltschuld zu bedienen. Im Wesentlichen hat Australien eine erhebliche falsche Zuweisung des Kapitals in Richtung auf unproduktive Märkte wie Wohnraum und mit großem Aufwand für produktive Sektoren der Wirtschaft. Investor Darlehen Anstieg 21,4 Prozent Hinzufügen zu makroökonomischen Bedenken ist heute8217s Release von Wohnungsfinanzierung Verpflichtungen aus dem Australian Bureau of Statistics. Trotz der Bemühungen der Regulierungsbehörden, das Kreditwachstum durch makroökonomische Kontrollen einzudämmen, stieg der Wert der Kredite an Immobilieninvestoren im Jahresverlauf um 21,4 Prozent. It8217s mehr Montage Beweise, wie schlecht ausgestattete australische Regulierungsbehörden sind in der Technik eine kontrollierte, sichere Landung. Geschrieben von admin am 17. Dezember 2016 8211 7:35 pm Wenn es eine Person gibt, die die Schwere der australischen Wohnblase und die Auswirkungen für unser Bankensystem kennt, ist es ex Commonwealth Bank CEO David Murray. Murray hat vor kurzem die Regierung8217s Finanzsystem Anfrage. In einem Interview, das auf Sky News Anfang dieses Monats ausgestrahlt wurde, sagte Murray, dass die australische Wirtschaft 8220vulnerable war, weil es eine Blase im Wohnungsmarkt gibt8221 Aber nicht gerade irgendeine Luftblase. Viele der Zeichen sind die gleichen wie die holländischen Tulpen, es gibt Völkerverhalten, Völker Verteidigung über jede Korrektur in diesem Markt 8211 all diese Zeichen sind da.8221 Die 1637 niederländische Tulpenblase war eine der größten Blasen in der Geschichte. 8220 Aber wenn diese Risiken da sind, muss man in einem regulatorischen Sinne etwas tun, und die Reserve Bank und APRA müssen darauf bleiben, empfahl er. Er ist nicht allein. Mehr muss getan werden In einem seltenen Schritt, IWF stellvertretender Geschäftsführer Tao Zhang besuchte Australien Anfang dieses Monats zu sprechen mit Regulierungsbehörden auf das Risiko für Australien8217s Wirtschaft gestellt. Herr Zhang sagte dem australischen Finanzbericht, 8220both Seiten stimmten zu, dass weitere Maßnahmen erforderlich waren, um die Widerstandsfähigkeit gegenüber Wohnungsmarktschocks zu stärken8221. Dass die aufsichtsrechtlichen Maßnahmen intensiviert werden müssen, wobei gezielte makro-aufsichtsrechtliche Maßnahmen und Banken ermutigt werden, ihre Kapitalposition in ein unbestreitbar starkes Territorium robust zu erhöhen, 8221 fügte er hinzu. Keine Empfehlungen von der Koalitionsuntersuchung zur Wohnungserfahrbarkeit Aber in einer Verlegenheit der Regierung hat eine zweijährige Untersuchung der Wohnungserfahrbarkeit durch die Koalition nicht einmal eine einzige Empfehlung gemacht. Der Bericht, der am Freitag freigegeben wurde, war und hat zu Recht eine Zeit - und Geldverschwendung von Kommentatoren gebrandmarkt. Aber zwischen den Zeilen zu lesen, scheint es jetzt, dass die Regierung die Wohnblase so groß und oberste schwer hält, sie sind nicht in der Lage, irgendwelche Änderungen vorzunehmen, ohne eine verheerende Korrektur auszulösen und ein beträchtliches politisches Gemetzel zu ihren Parteien herzustellen. Am besten, das den Regulierenden zu überlassen. Immerhin sah APRA nie den Zusammenbruch der HIH Versicherung, der 8211 das größte Firmenversagen in Australien8217s Geschichte kam. Geschrieben von admin am 27. November 2016 8211 8:56 pm Australien8217s Immobilien Investoren und Schulden Sklaven waren in Schock am Freitag, als Westpac trat die Reihen der kleineren Banken, deutlich wandern Hypothekenzinsen aus Zyklus, auf ihre Festkredite Darlehen. Westpac8217s Fünf-Jahres-Anlage-Darlehen werden 60 Basispunkte oder 2,4-fache der Standard-Reserve Bank Anstieg auf 4,79 Prozent kommen Montag. Zwei und drei Jahre Investitionskredite werden 30 Basispunkte steigen, während zwei und drei Jahre Besitzer Besatzung Hypotheken werden 24 Basispunkte zu erhöhen. Es folgt früher steigt von Westpac8217s RAMS und ein 60 Basispunkt Aufstieg von der Bank von Sydney. In den vergangenen vierzehn Tagen hatten weitere zehn kleinere Banken die Raten erhöht. Investoren waren zu naiv und selbstgefällig, um es zu sehen, aber sie sollten haben. Banken stehen vor Druck auf eine Anzahl von Fronten. IRB-Risiko-Gewichte Wie wir über die Jahre berichtet haben, haben Australien8217s große Banken oder IRB (interne Ratings-basierte) Banken 8211 Westpac, Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB und Macquarie, ihre Größe und ihren Status missbraucht. So dumm wie es klingt, dachten die Regulierungsbehörden, dass diese Banken wussten, was sie taten, also wurden ihnen die Macht gegeben, ihre eigenen Hypothekenbücher zu bewerten. Wie Sie erraten können, um die Profitabilität zu Lasten der finanziellen Stabilität zu erhöhen, haben die IRB-Banken die Risiken auf ihren Hypotheken-Portfolios so gefährlich niedrig eingestuft, dass sie nicht so viel kostspieliges Schaden absorbieren müssen. Immerhin wäre der Steuerpflichtige da, wenn sie ausgespielt werden müssten. Ein Stress-Test von der australischen Banken-Regulierungsbehörde im Jahr 2014 durchgeführt festgestellt, dass die fünf IRB-Banken waren zahlungsunfähig, wenn sie nicht in der Lage waren, auf weiteres Kapital zugreifen, nach einem moderaten Wohn-und Rohstoff-Crash. Etwas musste getan werden. Mit Wirkung zum 1. Juli 2016 hat die APRA die durchschnittlichen Risikogewichte für die IRB-Banken auf mindestens 25 Prozent erhöht. Dies erfordert die IRB-Banken, um zusätzliche Verlust absorbierende Kapital zu halten, um die Solvenz in einer Bankenkrise zu unterstützen. Die Banken haben zwei Möglichkeiten, reduzieren das Niveau der Rentabilität, oder treffen Sie Hypothekeninhaber. Die spätere ist vorzuziehen, da zu irgendeinem Zeitpunkt die Banken müssen 8211 gehen Cap in der Hand 8211 an die Aktionäre, um die Bilanzen, wenn Ausfallraten materiell steigen. 821Regulierte Banken8221 d. h. alle unsere anderen Banken haben eine Mindestrisikostrecke von 35 Prozent, so dass die Großbanken noch unfair begünstigt sind. Netto-stabile Finanzierungsquote (NSFR) Im Rahmen des Internationalen Basel-III-Abkommens, das die Banken belastbarer macht, müssen die Banken anfangen, sich eher auf inländische Einlagen für die Finanzierung zu verlassen, als auf die riskanten Großhandelsmärkte. Ein globaler Schock (brexit, Italien, Europa, China usw.) könnte Liquiditätsprobleme für das Überrollen der kurzfristigen Schulden verursachen. Als Australien8217s Haushalt Schulden schnell wuchs, verließen australische Banken stärker auf kurzfristige Großhandelsschuldenmärkte, um die dringend benötigte billige Finanzierung zu erhalten, um Australia8217s Verlangen nach ewigen Schulden zu befriedigen. Australien, um AAA-Bonität zu verlieren Wie wir im Juli berichtet haben, ist Australien auf einem Bonitätsausblick von negativ mit Rating-Agentur Standard und Poor. S038P, zu der Zeit, sagte Es gibt eine Eins-in-3-Chance, dass wir das Rating innerhalb der nächsten zwei Jahre senken könnten, wenn wir glauben, dass das Parlament ist unwahrscheinlich, dass Gesetze Einsparungen oder Einnahmen Maßnahmen genug für die allgemeine Staatssektor Haushaltsdefizit zu verengen Materiell und in einer ausgeglichenen Position von den frühen 2020s zu sein.8221 Seit der Warnung, Ministerpräsident Malcolm Turnbull und Schatzmeister Scott Morrison hat mehr oder weniger saß auf ihren Händen, wenn es um Budget Reparatur geht. Nur in dieser Woche hat das ehemalige RBA-Vorstandsmitglied John Edwards vorgeschlagen, die negativen Gearing nach unten zu senken, um unsere AAA-Bonität zu sichern, aber der Premierminister hat die Änderung ausgeschlossen, um jegliches Spiel von liberalen Backbänken zu verhindern, die stark von der negativen Getriebe-Soße abhängen. Das Problem, das dem weichen Premierminister gegenübersteht, kann er irgendwelche Kürzungen finden, die jemanden beeinflussen. Heute hat sogar der ehemalige Koalitions-Premierminister Tony Abbott Turnbull aufgerufen, um Australien8217 über ausgedehnte und riskante Banken zu verhärten, sind nur so sicher wie eine staatliche Rettung zu sehen und können daher keine Bonität haben, die die Regierung übersteigt. Der Verlust der staatlichen Kredit-Rating wird erwartet, dass jede Übersee Großhandel Finanzierung teurer machen. Der Trump-Effekt Eine Zukunft mit Donald Trump, Führer der freien Welt, ist am schwersten vorherzusagen, hat aber die meisten Schuld für steigende Zinsen angezogen. Trump-Politik wird weitgehend erwartet, dass Inflation mit Pro-Wachstum, große Infrastruktur baut in den Flügeln. Sein Wahlgewinn Anfang dieses Monats hat Pandemonium in den Weltverschuldungsmärkten verursacht, aber es gibt einige Beweise, daß Anleihen seit August nicht mehr zugunsten sind. Ob der Anleihemarkt-Sell-off im August oder im November mit der Wahl von Trump begann, sind die Anleiherenditen in eine Richtung gegangen und werden als ein guter Proxy für zukünftige Zinsbewegungen angesehen. Janet Yellen, US-Notenbank der US-Notenbank, wird voraussichtlich im Dezember auf amerikanische Zinssätze umziehen. Sollten wir Panik Australien8217s Banken Regulierungsbehörde hat immer wieder Banken sollten eine Servicefreundlichkeit Boden von 7 Prozent für wenn die Zinsen unweigerlich steigen. Die Banken haben diese Anforderung nicht erfüllt, es sollte ein gewisses Spielfeld für steigende Zinssätze in den nächsten 12 bis 24 Monaten geben. Aber dann, wer ist zuversichtlich, die Banken abgeschirmt Hypothek Bewerber mit einem 7 Prozent Boden Sicherlich nicht ich. Geschrieben von admin am 24. Oktober 2016 8211 21.15 Uhr Australien steht vor einem beispiellosen Wohnungsüberangebot als geschätzte 230.000 neue Wohnungen überfluten die Märkte Melbourne, Sydney und Brisbane in den nächsten 24 Monaten. Der Anstieg des neuen Wohnhauses war in einem Versuch, die unersättliche Nachfrage des ausländischen chinesischen Immobilieninvestors zu befriedigen. Unter einem australischen Gesetz zur Erhöhung der Wohnungsbestände können ausländische Investoren nur neue Wohnungen kaufen. Aber wie wir im Mai berichteten (8220 Banken ziehen Schrauben an ausländischen Käufern 8220) die Banken enthüllten Spuren von was würde sich als systemischer Betrug. Die ANZ-Bank forderte ihre asiatischen Tochtergesellschaften auf, die obskuren Offshore-Gesellschaften, die als Quellen für ausländische Einkünfte bezeichnet werden, zu überprüfen und zu überprüfen, um diese Immobilienkredite zu erbringen. Die meisten Offshore-Unternehmen gab es nicht. Bis Ende April war die ANZ gezwungen, die Genehmigung von 90 Darlehen an ausländische Investoren zurückzuziehen. Nicht lange danach kam die Wahrheit mit der Offenlegung heraus, dass ANZ und Westpac Banken Hunderte von Darlehen unterstützt haben, die durch betrügerische ausländische Einkommensunterlagen unterstützt wurden. Alle Banken begannen sofort, die Anforderungen an die Förderfähigkeit und die Gebrauchstauglichkeit zu erhöhen. Manche wählten sogar das Schreiben aller neuen Kredite an Ausländer, zitiert das Risiko war einfach zu groß. Viele Ausländer hatten Einlagen auf ihre Wohnungen gelegt, waren aber nicht mehr für die Darlehen aus Australien8217s Großbanken, Darlehen, die für die Abwicklung erforderlich waren. Um zu helfen, Katastrophe zu verringern, chinesisches Immobilienportal, hat aofun. au eine Nominee Verkaufsplattform in einem Angebot gebildet, um einige der Tausenden der Wohnungen zu verschieben, in denen Kunden nicht in der Lage sind, Siedlung abzuschließen. Ausländische Immobilieninvestoren verschlossen aus der Wohnung Re-Sales Aber in einem ironischen Twist, ist der ausländische Immobilieninvestor aus dem Re-Sale-Markt gesperrt und nicht in der Lage, ein Schnäppchen zu knacken. Laut einem Sprecher des australischen Steueramtes, nach den §§ 15 Abs. 4 und 5 des Gesetzes über die Erwerbs - und Übernahmegesetz von 1975 gilt eine Wohnung als verkauft, wenn eine Vereinbarung verbindlich wird, 8221 8220Wenn die Immobilie nach dem Datum, an dem der Vertrag verbindlich wird, und vor der Abwicklung, gilt dies als eine etablierte Wohnung.8221 Da ausländische Investoren nicht kaufen können, was heute als etablierte Wohnung gilt, können sie nicht dazu beitragen, ein Teil des belastenden Überangebots aufzusaugen. Agenten Ziel der ersten Hauskäufer Nicht zu besiegen, sind Wohnung Vertriebsagenten jetzt auf die erste Hauskäufer. Aofun sogar behauptet 8220Australian FIRST HOME KÄUFER können abholen ein Schnäppchen mit der Kaution bereits bezahlt for8221 Aber können sie genießen 230.000 Wohnungen in 24 Monaten Anfang dieses Monats, die Australien Bureau of Statistics (ABS) überarbeitete erste Hauskäufer Beteiligung am Markt schief Gegenüber dem spekulativen Investor. Ursprüngliche Zahlen schlugen ein Tief von nur 14,1 Prozent der Käufer im Juli 2016 waren erste Hauskäufer, aber tatsächliche Zahlen sind viel schlimmsten. Nach der Revision glaubt das ABS jetzt nur 13,2 Prozent der Teilnehmer am Markt im Juli waren erste Hauskäufer. Zahlen waren seit vier Jahren stetig. Die hohen Wohnungskosten zogen die Einkommenseinkommen ab, schalteten das Geschäft ab und führten zu einer höheren Arbeitslosigkeit und einer Belegschaft der Belegschaft. Gekoppelt mit weglaufen Hauspreise, erste Hauskäufer, die, die Arbeitsplätze haben, kämpfen, um in den Wohnungsmarkt 8211 zu bekommen, unabhängig davon, ob ihre Grundnahrungsmittel Diät zerschlagene Avocado mit zerbröckelten Feta auf Fünf-Korn gerösteten Brot enthält. Mit Mühe brauen in der Wohnung Markt, die Banken sind weiter knacken auf Kreditvergabe. Am Samstag hat die National Australia Bank (NAB) ihre vertrauliche Kreditvergabe Blacklist erweitert, um über 600 Städte und Vorstädte zu decken. Käufer benötigen jetzt mindestens 30 Prozent Kaution, um Eigentum in diesen Vororten zu erwerben, die dem Bergbau-Abschwung oder dem Wohnungsüberangebot ausgesetzt sind. Heute, Bendigo und Adelaide Bank knackte auf hohe Risiko-Standorte Erhöhung der Mindesteinzahlung auf 40 Prozent. Wenn die ersten Hauskäufer kämpften, um eine 20-prozentige Kaution zu sparen, werden sie noch mehr Schwierigkeiten haben, eine dreißig bis vierzig Prozent Kaution für eine Hochrisiko-Wohnung zu husten. Aber es ist auch ein Irrtum, alle Generation Y und X zu betrachten, um Australien8217s Gehäuseblase zu betreten und zu lebenslangen Schulden Sklaven zu werden. Also die Frage steht, nur wer kauft alle Wohnungen Defaults Geschrieben von admin am 20. Oktober 2016 8211 6:44 pm Australien8217s beispiellose Gehäuse Blase hat eine erhebliche Anzahl von Hypothekendarlehen gezwungen, Darlehen Anwendungen zu verfälschen, einfach, um einen Fuß in der Immer anspruchsvoller Markt. Eine aktuelle UBS-Umfrage ergab, dass Hypothekenbetrug in Australien weit verbreitet war, mit 28 Prozent der Bewerber, die die Verurteilung von Darlehensdokumenten zulassen. Viele hatten entweder das Haushaltseinkommen übertrieben, übertriebene Vermögenswerte oder unterschätzte Schulden - oder Lebenshaltungskosten. Kreditnehmer, die kaum in den Markt gelangen konnten, waren die Gruppe, die am ehesten die Wahrheit ausdehnten, mit UBS-Berichterstattung, 8220.das war ein Zusammenhang zwischen Kreditnehmern, die ihre Bewerbung falsch darstellten, und diejenigen, deren Ausgaben weitgehend ihrem Einkommen entsprachen, dass sie unter finanzieller Belastung stehen oder Haben eine Schuldenzahlung verpasst.8221 AMP8217s 2016 Finanz-Wellness-Bericht. Veröffentlicht heute, fanden 24 Prozent der Arbeiter in Australien jetzt als 8220finanziell betont.8221 UBS angegeben seine Umfrage war wahrscheinlich zu unterschätzen die Zahl der verfälschten Hypotheken und vorgeschlagenen Hypothek Betrug war 8220systemic8221 in Australien, und vor allem unter den Brokern. Wayne Byres, Vorsitzender des australischen Bankenreglers, APRA, hat dem Senat Economics Legislation Committee gesagt, der Watchdog hat Australien8217s größte Banken angewiesen, ihre externen Auditoren eine Überprüfung über ihre Betrugsbekämpfungsverfahren durchzuführen. Byres erklärte dem Komitee, Wir haben den größeren Institutionen gesagt, dass sie gut fragen, dass sie ihre externen Auditoren eine Überprüfung dessen haben, was im Wesentlichen Betrugsbekämpfungsmechanismen ist, um sicherzustellen, dass es Mechanismen gibt und arbeiten, mit solchem ​​systemischen Betrug gibt es Ängste Eine Rückkehr zu einer umsichtigeren Kreditvergabe könnte Australia8217s überbelasteten Wohnungsmarkt in eine Abwärtsspirale schicken. Anfang dieses Monats, Roy Morgan Research gefunden 311.000 Hypothekeninhaber in Australien hatte wenig oder kein Eigenkapital in ihrem Haus. Eine Kühlung des Marktes würde Hunderttausende von Hypothekeninhabern in negatives Eigenkapital stürzen. Geschrieben von admin am 19. Oktober 2016 8211 6:06 pm It8217s nicht nur diejenigen, die kämpfen, um in den Immobilienmarkt zu brechen, die auf zerschlagene Avocado mit zerbröckelten Feta auf fünfkörnigem geröstetem Brot zurückschneiden müssen. Zinssätze könnten auf Rekordtiefs sein, aber die Kriminalitätsraten haben Rekordhöhen in Westaustralien, Tasmanien und dem Northern Territory erreicht. In Südaustralien sind die Kriminalitätsraten nur 0,1 Prozent schüchtern. Die Wohnungsbüste in Westaustralien und Lohndeflation hat zu Hypothekenrückständen beigetragen, die 2,33 Prozent schlagen und im vergangenen Jahr um 0,69 Prozent stiegen. National sind in jedem Staat und Territorium die Kriminalität gestiegen. Die Zahl der Delinquenten Hypotheken in Australien ist auf drei Jahre Hochs und wird wahrscheinlich weiter steigen, nach Moodys Investors Service. Hypothekeninhaber mehr als 30 Tage zu spät auf ihre Hypothek steht derzeit bei 1,5 Prozent, und stößt auf die 1,59 Prozent Rekord im April 2013. Australier haben die höchsten Haushalt Schulden in der Welt. Geschrieben von admin am 15. September 2016 8211 19:59 Premierminister Malcolm Turnbull hat die Australier aufgerufen, um vorsichtig zu überschüssigen Haushaltsschulden zu sein, sagen, dass die Zinssätze nicht immer niedrig bleiben werden. Es ist nicht für mich, Vorträge über Haushaltsfinanzierung zu geben, aber ich denke, die meisten Australier sind sehr aufmerksam auf die Tatsache, dass, während die Zinsen niedrig sind, sie havent immer niedrig waren und dass youve, um umsichtig zu sein in Bezug auf Ihre Kreditaufnahme, sagte er dem Westaustralischen Zeitung. Es ist bis zur Reserve Bank, um die finanzielle Stabilität aufrechtzuerhalten, und sie haben eine Anzahl von Hebeln, die Zinssätze sind die offensichtlichsten, um übermäßige Kreditaufnahme zu adressieren, wenn das der richtige Begriff ist. Im März-Quartal stieg die Haushaltsverschuldung in Prozent des Haushaltseinkommens auf 187 Prozent auf der Rückseite der Notfall-niedrigen Zinsen. Australier tragen das höchste Niveau der Hausschulden von jedermann in der Welt. Diese Belastung und Rekord hohen Haushalt Schulden Ebene hat Moodys Investors Service Problem eine neue Warnung, dass australische Banken werden in unbekannten Gebiet, wenn die Nationen Haushalte haben, um mit einem wirtschaftlichen Abschwung zu kämpfen verursacht. Die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Haushaltsbilanzen und damit der Bankportfolios zu einem ernsthaften Konjunkturabschwung wurde auf diesen Ebenen der Verschuldung des privaten Sektors nicht geprüft, sagte Ilya Serov, Senior Vice President bei Moodys Financial Institutions. Geschrieben von admin am 13. August 2016 8211 8:21 pm Ausländische Investoren in australischen Immobilien müssen ihre eigenen Sound Due Diligence durchführen, nachdem es offenbart wurde eines der Länder führenden Haus Preisindizes hat überanstrengendes Wachstum. Aber es ist nicht das einzige Problem, mit dem sie konfrontiert sind. Australien8217s Zentralbank wurde gezwungen, mit einem Haus Preisindex von CoreLogic fallen, nachdem die Bank sagte, es ist 8220overstating8221 Haus Preiswachstum. In einem Land, das von Immobilien besessen war, benutzte jeder die CoreLogic-Statistik, da es immer ein starkes, ewiges Wachstum darstellte, unabhängig von der tatsächlichen Marktleistung. Die letzte monatliche Aktualisierung, veröffentlicht am 1. August gefunden Adelaide Wohnungen stieg eine atemberaubende 1,4 Prozent im Monat Juli. Sydney war ein heißes 1,3 Prozent und Melbourne 1,1 Prozent. Corelogic rühmte sich, 8220Capital Stadtbewohner Werte erreichen ein Rekordhoch im Juli8221 Ab dem 31. Juli nach Corelogic, Sydney8217s Median Wohnpreis lag 775.000 von 780.000 im Monat zuvor (ja unten), Melbourne war 585.000 nach 587.500 im Monat zuvor ( Ja unten) und Adelaide war 417.500 von 420.000 (nein, kein Fehler 8211 unten). Das ist für sich allein keine Sorge. Der Corelogic Home Value Index ist ein Hedonic Index, was bedeutet, dass die Daten 8220massaged8221 sind, um die Attribute der Eigenschaft 8211 besser zu verfolgen, d. h. die Anzahl der Schlafzimmer und Bäder. Aber es war in diesem Jahr ein regelmäßiges Ereignis geworden. Monat nach Monat, Median nach unten, Index nach oben. Sydney begann das Jahr mit einem Median 800.000 Wohnungspreis und geschlossen letzten Monat bei 775.000 nach Corelogic. Trotz des Sturzes hat Sydney ein beeindruckendes monatliches Wachstum, 0,5 Prozent (Jan), 0,5 Prozent (Feb), 1,0 Prozent (Mar), 2,4 Prozent (Apr), 3,1 Prozent (Mai), 1,2 Prozent ( Jun), 1,3 Prozent (Jul). Es wird verstanden, dass Corelogic im April eine 8220-methododische Veränderung8221 gemacht hat und vergessen hat, die Kunden über die Änderungen, einschließlich der Reserve Bank of Australia, zu beraten. Wenn du in Sydney, Melbourne oder Brisbane in letzter Zeit gewesen bist, hättest du zweifellos den Anblick endloser Kräne erlebt. Australien ist in den Griff eines beispiellosen Wohnhauses Boom. Im März-Quartal, nach dem ABS, der private Sektor baute 150.706 8220other8221 Wohn-Wohnungen, in der Regel Einheiten und Wohnungen. Das ist dreifach die ca. 50.000 vor 6 Jahren. Die meisten dieser Wohnungen sind off-the-plan und werden für Ausländer gebaut. Anleger setzen in der Regel eine 10-prozentige Kaution und sind verpflichtet, den Rest zu bezahlen, wenn die Wohnung komplett ist. Dies könnte die Erlangung eines Darlehens mit einer Bank, wenn die Zeit kommt. 8220Alle Deals sind eingefroren8221 Wie wir im Mai berichteten (Banken ziehen Schrauben an ausländischen Käufern), Australien8217s Big 4 hatte begonnen, zurückzuziehen und Klemmen auf Kredite an ausländische Investoren nach der Erkennung weit verbreiteten Betrug. Nach Übersee Hypothekenmakler, sind viele jetzt kämpfen, um ihre Einkäufe abzuschließen. Mark Yin, ein Agent mit Shanghai-basierte Home Tree Group sagte der AFR, 8220All die Angebote wurden eingefroren, 8221 Laut dem Bericht waren fast 100 Prozent seiner Kunden nicht in der Lage, Finanzen von australischen Banken zu bekommen. Die meisten kauften Wohnungen in der Melbourne CBD. Ich habe jetzt in australischem Eigentum aufgehört, 8221 sagte er. Lanny Xu, CEO von Iron Fish China sagte etwa 20 Prozent ihrer Kunden versuchten, Wohnungen zu verkaufen, nachdem sie keine Kredite erhalten hatten. Für lokale Käufer hat das Überangebot der Wohnungen gesehen, dass die Preise fallen. Banken schätzen die Wohnung bei der Siedlung und viele kommen kurz. In Melbourne8217s Docklands, CBD und Southbank, Wohnungen verkaufen bis zu 24 Prozent Rabatte auf die Off-the-Plan Preis. Nach einem aktuellen Artikel in der AFR, off der Plan Wohnung Verkauf in Brisbane8217s Innenstadt ist um 44 Prozent im letzten Quartal. (Brisbane Wohnung Verkauf Zusammenbruch, Siedlungen jetzt Schwerpunkt für Entwickler) Geschrieben von admin am 7. Juli 2016 8211 8:57 pm Jahre der Ausgaben über unsere Mittel hat sich mit Australien heute, mit Rating-Agentur Standard und Poor8217s senkt Australien8217s Bonitätsausblick Zu negativ Während Australien seine wertvolle AAA-Bonität für jetzt behält, ist es eine starke Warnung Australien könnte seine begehrte Bonität verlieren, wenn unsere Budgetposition nicht verbessert wird. In einer Erklärung, sagte Standards und Poor8217s, 8220Es gibt eine Eins-in-Drei-Chance, dass wir das Rating innerhalb der nächsten zwei Jahre senken könnten, wenn wir glauben, dass das Parlament es unwahrscheinlich ist, dass die Einsparungen oder Einnahmen, die für das Haushaltsdefizit des Staatssektors ausreichend sind, Sich bis in die frühen 2020er Jahre materiell zu verkleinern und sich in einer ausgeglichenen Position zu befinden.8221 Eine solche Verbesserung könnte die Großvaterung des negativen Getriebes und die Verringerung des Kapitalgewinns von 50 Prozent auf 25 Prozent sein, um die Steuerzahler zu sparen 6 Milliarden im Jahr. Standard und Poor8217s später heute platziert NSW, Victoria und die ACT auf einen negativen Ausblick auf 8220no staatliche Einheit kann eine höhere Bewertung als die Commonwealth of Australia.8221 Infolgedessen aus ähnlichen Gründen unsere großen vier Banken 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC und NAB waren Auf einen negativen Ausblick gesetzt. S038P bemerkte, 8220Die negativen Aussichten auf diese Banken spiegeln unsere Ansicht, dass die Ratings von staatlichen Unterstützung profitieren und dass wir erwarten würden, diese Einheiten zu stufen, wenn wir die langfristige lokale Währung souveräne Kredit-Rating auf Australien senken. S038P beschrieben Staatsanleihen als niedrig, aber Zeigte seine größte Sorge ist Australien8217s 8220high externe und Haushalt Verschuldung8221. 8220A Teil von Australien8217s Auslandsverschuldung hat auch einen Anstieg der unproduktiven Haushalt Kreditaufnahme für Wohnraum in den 1990er Jahren und 2000s finanziert.8221 Australien hat das höchste Niveau der Haushalt Schulden als Prozentsatz des BIP in der Welt. Etwa 30 Prozent der Bankfinanzierung stammen aus externen Großhandelsmärkten, die Australien zu externen Schocks aussetzen. Irland war in einer ähnlichen Situation vor GFC mit niedrigen Staatsanleihen und deutlich hohen Haushalt Schulden. Als die irischen Leute ihre Schulden nicht mehr bedienen konnten, war das Bankensystem geknickt, die Regierung war gezwungen, sie auszuruhen und die Haushaltsschulden effektiv auf die Bilanz der Regierung zu verlagern. Geschrieben von admin am 3. Juli 2016 8211 21:00 Uhr Australia8217s Trek zu den Umfragen am Samstag hat in einem Nagel beißen, zu nah an Anruf Ergebnis geführt. Am Ende des Zählens um 2 Uhr morgens hatte der ALP 67 Sitze, LNP 8211 65 und die Minderjährigen haben fünf abgeholt. 13 Sitze bleiben im Zweifel mit dem Zählen, um am Dienstag wieder aufzunehmen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Australien auf ein gehangenes Parlament und drei Jahre politischer Sackgasse für Wirtschaftsreformen und Versuche gehen könnte, um die Ausgaben zu verbringen. Solch ein Deadlock könnte das Ende von Australien8217s begehrte AAA Kredit-Rating mit Spekulationen Australien könnte auf Kredit-Watch negativ innerhalb von Wochen gesetzt werden. Der daraus resultierende Verlust der dreifachen AAA-Bonität wird nicht nur die Staatsverschuldung teurer machen, sondern es wird zu einer Schwankung der Herabstufungen für australische Banken und Unternehmen führen und möglicherweise zu einem Anstieg der Hypothekenzinsen aufgrund von Banken über die Vertrauenswürdigkeit der Großhandelsfinanzierung führen. Das Downgrade wird auch ein Schlag zum Vertrauen sein. Australien8217s Gesamtschulden steigt auf 254 Prozent des BIP Der Verlust unserer AAA-Bonität würde schließlich passieren, unabhängig von dem Ergebnis der Wahl. Es gibt Spekulationen über den Verlust für Monate. Ein Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Release am vergangenen Donnerstag insgesamt ein Rekordhoch für australische Schulden Ebenen. Die Gesamtbevölkerung der privaten Haushalte, des öffentlichen Sektors und der Wirtschaft (ohne Finanzierungsgesellschaften) betrug im ersten Quartal bis März 254 Prozent des BIP. Households8217 unersättlicher Appetit auf eine Scheibe der australischen Wohnblase und um jeden Preis den größten Beitrag zum Gesamtschuldenniveau bei 125 Prozent des BIP. Die australischen Haushalte bleiben in der Welt am meisten verschuldet als Prozentsatz des BIP. Ein erhebliches Risiko ist unsere große Banken8217 Vertrauen auf Übersee Großhandel Finanzierung zur Unterstützung der Wohnimmobilienmarkt. Da die Welt zunehmend das australische Wunder in Frage stellt und das Risiko neu berechnet, werden die Spreads dieser Großhandelsfinanzierung zunehmen. Laut der Courier Mail, Analyst, John Steiner aus den Vereinigten Staaten basierte Hedgeye Risk Management hat Investoren kurz Australien8217s großen vier Banken empfohlen. Er glaubt, dass das Gehäuse Überangebot und sinkende Nachfrage hat signalisiert Australien8217s Wohnungsmarkt ist in einer Blase und ist im Begriff zu blasen. Die Handelsschulden sitzen nun bei 84 Prozent des BIP, während die Staatsverschuldung bis zu 47 Prozent des BIP ausmacht. Anfang dieses Jahres, als die Gesamtverschuldung nur 243 Prozent des BIP betrug, berechnete Morgan Stanley für jeden Dollar des zusätzlichen BIP-Wachstums, Australien sammelte einen zusätzlichen 9 Wert der Schulden. Zu der Zeit sagte Daniel Blake, ein in Sydney ansässiger Ökonom für Morgan Stanley, dass Australien dringend andere Wachstumsquellen finden muss, die weniger schultensicher sind als der riesig gehebelte Immobilienmarkt. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. Sie sagte. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Written by admin on January 28, 2017 8211 7:37 pm China8217s most recent capital controls, introduced on the 1st of January, are having an immediate effect, with fewer Chinese buyers able to purchase property abroad. From London to Melbourne, Vancouver to Sydney, Chinese citizens are struggling to close property transactions in some of the world8217s largest property bubbles. International experts believe the drop in demand is expected to be worst felt in Australia, the biggest beneficiary of the capital outflow. According to Christopher Todd at consultancy firm Basis Point, Australia approved A24 billion of real estate investments from China in the financial year ended June 2015, the latest figures available, making Australia by far the largest destination for Chinese buyers. China8217s currency has plunged to eight year lows on the back of a record braking capital flight. Its foreign exchange reserves has been slashed to 3.052 trillion, the lowest in almost 6 years. To help stem the tide, China further tightened controls on foreign exchange, a day prior to quotas resetting on the 1st of January. In a statement from China8217s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), it said it wanted to stamp out money laundering and illegal overseas property purchases. While the regulator has left the quota of 50,000 yuan (A9,600) foreign currency, per person, per year unchanged, it has significantly increased disclosure requirements. Chinese citizens must now pledge the money wont be used for overseas purchases of property, securities or life insurance. They must also give detailed accounts of what the money will be used for. Banks will now report any overseas transaction made by an individual exceeding 10,000 yuan (A2,000). Bloomberg reports on the despair: If its too difficult, Im out, said Mr. Zheng, 66, a retired civil servant in Shanghai who declined to give his first name to avoid attracting regulatory scrutiny. He may abandon a 2.4 million yuan (348,903) home purchase in western Melbourne, even after shelling out a 300,000 yuan deposit last August. Hes due to make another big payment next month. For Zheng, the decision on whether to walk away from his Melbourne property or risk breaking Chinas foreign-exchange rules is fast approaching. Hes scheduled to wire another 800,000 yuan to Australia in late February to cover the rest of his down payment. With the Lunar New Year starting today, an army of Chinese holiday makers are in the air heading for Melbourne and Sydney as local property agents prepare for the 8220golden week8221. The agents are already witnessing a substantial drop off in demand. Many Chinese view property with a tour group, but only half the number of buses are filled this year. Ray White Balwyn director Helen Yan told the Domain, fewer Chinese tourists would be hunting for property this year. A positive to come from all of this 8211 they will have more time to enjoy a real holiday in Australia. Happy Chinese New Year. Written by admin on January 17, 2017 8211 7:15 pm Credit rating agency Fitch has placed Australia8217s banks on a negative credit watch, citing an increase in macro-economic risks stemming from the property asset bubble. Fitch indicated a key risk for the banking system was the banks8217 exposure to the overheated property market. Of special concerned is strong increases in household debt levels relative to household disposal income 8211 at a time when Australia8217s household debt relative to household disposal income sits at a staggering 187 per cent, one of the highest levels in the world. Household debt is high and rising relative to disposable incomes, making borrowers sensitive to changes in the labour market and interest rates, Fitch analyst Andrea Jaehne stated. Pressure from multiple fronts has forced Australian banks to hike interest rates in recent months following upward trends around the globe. But with significant levels of household debt, Australian households are going to feel the brunt of the rate hikes, more so than other countries with much more prudent household debt levels. Fitch also expresses concern about growing job losses. Abnormally high housing costs has forced wages sky high in Australia, making the country a high cost economy and one struggling to compete in a global free market. This has caused the closure of complete industries and accelerated the offshoring of an increasing number of jobs, the very jobs required to service the high levels of household indebtedness. Essentially, Australia has a significant misallocation of capital towards unproductive markets such as housing, and at great expense to productive sectors of the economy. Investor loans surge 21.4 per cent Adding to macro-economic concerns is today8217s release of housing finance commitments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Despite efforts by regulators to curb lending growth through macro-prudential controls, the value of loans to property investors surged 21.4 per cent over the year. It8217s more mounting evidence just how ill-equipped Australian regulators are in engineering a controlled, safe landing. Written by admin on December 17, 2016 8211 7:35 pm If there is one person that knows the severity of the Australian housing bubble and the repercussions for our banking system, it is ex Commonwealth Bank CEO David Murray. Murray more recently headed up the the government8217s Financial System Inquiry . In an interview broadcast on Sky News earlier this month, Murray said the Australian economy was 8220vulnerable because there is a bubble in the housing market8221 But not just any bubble. Many of the signs are the same as the Dutch Tulips, .. there are peoples behavior, peoples defensiveness about any correction in that market 8211 all those signs are there.8221 The 1637 Dutch Tulip bubble was one of the greatest bubbles in history. 8220But when those risks are there, something needs to be done about it in a regulatory sense, and the Reserve Bank and APRA need to stay on it, he recommended. He is not alone. More needs to be done In a rare move, IMF deputy managing director Tao Zhang visited Australia earlier this month to speak with regulators on the risk posed to Australia8217s economy. Mr Zhang told the Australian Financial Review, 8220both sides agreed that further measures were needed to strengthen resilience to housing market shocks8221. 8220We8217re talking about prudential policies needing to be intensified, with targeted macro-prudential measures and banks being encouraged to robustly increase their capital position into unquestionably strong territory,8221 he added. No recommendations from Coalition inquiry on housing affordability But, in an embarrassment to the government, a two year inquiry into housing affordability by the Coalition has failed to make even a single recommendation. The report, released on Friday has been, and quite rightly, branded a waste of time and money by commentators. But reading between the lines, it would now appear the Government considers the housing bubble so big and top heavy, they are unable to make any changes, without triggering a devastating correction and creating considerable political carnage to their parties brand. Best to leave that to the regulators. After all, APRA never saw the collapse of HIH Insurance coming 8211 the largest corporate failure in Australia8217s history. Written by admin on November 27, 2016 8211 8:56 pm Australia8217s property investors and debt slaves were in shock on Friday, when Westpac joined the ranks of smaller banks, significantly hiking mortgage rates out of cycle, on its fixed term loans. Westpac8217s five year fixed investment loan will jump 60 basis points or 2.4 times the standard Reserve Bank increase to 4.79 per cent come Monday. Two and three year investment loans will rise 30 basis points, while two and three year owner occupier mortgages will increase 24 basis points. It follows earlier rises by Westpac8217s RAMS and a 60 basis point rise from the Bank of Sydney. Over the past fortnight, another ten smaller banks had increased rates. Investors were too naive and complacent to see it coming, but they should have. Banks are facing pressure on a number of fronts. IRB Risk Weights As we have reported over the years, Australia8217s big banks or IRB (internal ratings-based) banks 8211 Westpac, Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB and Macquarie, have been abusing their size and status. As silly as it sounds, regulators thought these banks knew what they were doing, so they were given the power to risk rate their own mortgage books. As you can guess, in a bid to enhance profitability at the detriment of financial stability, the IRB banks rated the risks on their mortgage portfolios so dangerously low so as to not have to hold as much expensive loss absorbing capital. After all, the taxpayer would be at hand if they needed to be bailed out. A stress test conducted by the Australian banking regulator in 2014 found that the five IRB banks were insolvent, if they were unable to access further capital, after a moderate housing and commodities crash. Something had to be done. Effective 1st July 2016, APRA has raised the average risk weights for the IRB banks to a minimum of 25 per cent. This will require the IRB banks to hold extra loss absorbing capital to assist with solvency in a banking crisis. The banks have two options, reduce the level of profitability, or hit up mortgage holders. The later is preferable, as at some stage the banks may have to 8211 go cap in hand 8211 to shareholders to shore up balance sheets when default rates materially rise. 8220Regulated banks8221 i. e. all our other banks, have a minimum risk rate of 35 per cent, so the big banks are still unfairly advantaged. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) As part of the International Basel III accord designed to make banks more resilient, banks will have to start relying more on domestic deposits for funding, rather than the risky overseas wholesale markets. A global shock (brexit, Italy, Europe, China etc) could cause liquidity problems for rolling over short term debt. As Australia8217s household debt rapidly grew, Australian banks relied more heavily on short term wholesale debt markets to get the much needed cheap funding to satisfy Australia8217s craving for perpetual debt. Australia set to lose AAA credit rating As we reported in July, Australia is on a credit rating outlook of negative with ratings agency Standard and Poor. S038P, at the time, said There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 Since the warning, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison has more or less sat on their hands when it comes to budget repair. Only this week, former RBA board member John Edwards has suggested cutting negative gearing subsides to secure our AAA credit rating, but the Prime Minister has ruled out the change to prevent any backlash from Liberal backbenches who heavily depend on the negative gearing gravy train. The problem facing the soft Prime Minister, is he can8217t find any cuts that won8217t effect someone. Today, even former coalition Prime Minister, Tony Abbott has called on Turnbull to harden up Australia8217s over extended and risky banks are seen only as safe as a government bailout, and hence cannot have a credit rating that exceeds the government. The loss of the government credit rating is expected to make any overseas wholesale funding more expensive. The Trump Effect A future with Donald Trump, leader of the free world, is the hardest to predict, but has attracted most of the blame for rising interest rates. Trump policy is largely expected to be inflationary with pro-growth, large infrastructure builds in the wings. His election win earlier this month has caused pandemonium in world debt markets, but there is some evidence to suggest bonds have been out of favor since August. Whether the bond market sell-off started in August, or November with the election of Trump, bond yields are heading in one direction, up, and is considered a good proxy for future interest rate moves. Janet Yellen, United States Federal Reserve chair, is expected to move on American interest rates in December. Should we panic Australia8217s banking regulator has repeatedly maintained banks should have a serviceability floor of 7 per cent for when interest rates inevitably go up. Provided banks didn8217t flout this requirement, there should be some scope for rising interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months. But then, who is confident the banks screened mortgage applicants with a 7 per cent floor Certainly not me. Written by admin on October 24, 2016 8211 9:15 pm Australia is facing an unprecedented apartment oversupply as an estimated 230,000 new apartments flood the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane markets over the next 24 months. The surge in new apartment building was in an attempt to satisfy the insatiable demand from the foreign Chinese property investor. Under an Australian law designed to increase housing stock, foreign investors can only purchase new dwellings. But as we reported in May (8220 Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers 8220 ) the banks were uncovering traces of what would turn out to be systemic fraud. The ANZ bank asked its Asian subsidiaries to verify and cross check the obscure offshore companies being cited as sources of foreign income to service these property loans. Most offshore companies didn8217t exist. By the end of April, the ANZ was forced to retract the approval on 90 loans to foreign investors. Not long after, the truth came out with the disclosure that ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. All the banks immediately began to toughen eligibility and serviceability requirements. Some even chose to freeze the writing of all new loans to foreigners, citing the risk was just too great. Many foreigners had put down deposits on their apartments but were no longer eligible for the loans from Australia8217s big banks, loans essential to complete settlement. To help mitigate disaster, Chinese real estate portal, aofun. au has set up a Nominee Sale Platform in a bid to shift some of the thousands of apartments where buyers are unable to complete settlement. Foreign property investors locked out of apartment re-sales But in an ironic twist, the foreign property investor has been locked out of the re-sale market and unable to snag a bargain. According to a spokesperson from the Australian Taxation Office, Under subsections 15(4) and (5) of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, a dwelling is considered to be sold when an agreement becomes binding,8221 8220If the property is onsold after the date upon which the contract becomes binding, and prior to settlement, then this is considered to be an established dwelling.8221 As foreign investors cannot purchase what is now deemed an established dwelling, they are unable to help soak up some of the burdening oversupply. Agents target the first home buyer Not to be defeated, apartment sales agents are now targeting the first home buyer. Aofun even claims 8220Australian FIRST HOME BUYERS can pick up a bargain with the deposit already paid for8221 But can they soak up 230,000 apartments in 24 months Earlier this month, the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revised down first home buyer participation in the market skewed towards the speculative investor. Original figures suggested a low of just 14.1 per cent of buyers in July 2016 were first home buyers, but actual figures are much worst. After revision, the ABS now believe just 13.2 per cent of participants in the market in July were first home buyers. Numbers had been steadily falling for four years. High housing costs have been zapping disposable incomes, shutting down business and leading to higher unemployment and the casualisation of the workforce. Coupled with run away house prices, first home buyers, the one who have jobs, are struggling to get into the housing market 8211 regardless of if their staple diet includes smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread. With trouble brewing in the apartment market, the banks are further cracking down on lending. On Saturday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) expanded its confidential lending blacklist to cover over 600 towns and suburbs. Buyers now need a minimum 30 per cent deposit to purchase property in these suburbs exposed to the mining downturn or apartment oversupply. Today, Bendigo and Adelaide bank cracked down on high risk locations increasing the minimum deposit to 40 per cent. If first home buyers were struggling to save a twenty per cent deposit, they will face even more difficulty to cough up a thirty to forty per cent deposit for a high risk apartment. But it8217s also a mistake to assume all Generation Y and X endeavor to enter Australia8217s housing bubble and become lifetime debt slaves. So the question stands, just who will purchase all the apartment defaults Written by admin on October 20, 2016 8211 6:44 pm Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble has forced a significant number of mortgage applicants to falsify loan applications, simply to get a foothold in the ever challenging market. A recent UBS survey found mortgage fraud in Australia was rife, with 28 per cent of applicants admitting to falsifying loan documents. Many had either overstated household income, overstated asset values or understated debt or living expenses. Borrowers barely able to break into the market were the group most likely to stretch the truth, with UBS reporting, 8220there was a correlation between borrowers who misrepresented their application and: those whose expenditure was broadly equal to their income stated they are under financial stress or have missed a debt payment.8221 AMP8217s 2016 Financial Wellness Report. released today, found 24 per cent of workers in Australia are now classified as 8220financially stressed.8221 UBS indicated its survey was likely to understate the number of falsified mortgages and suggested mortgage fraud was 8220systemic8221 in Australia, and especially prevalent among brokers. Wayne Byres, Chairman of the Australian Banking Regulator, APRA, has told the Senate Economics Legislation Committee, the watchdog has instructed Australia8217s largest banks to have their external auditors conduct a review on their fraud control procedures. Byres told the committee, We have told the larger institutions that well be asking them to have their external auditors do a review of what are essentially fraud control mechanisms to ensure that there are mechanisms in place andare working, With such systemic fraud, there are fears a return to more prudent lending could send Australia8217s overextended housing market into a downwards spiral. Earlier this month, Roy Morgan Research found 311,000 mortgage holders in Australia had little or no equity in their home. A cooling of the market would plunge hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders into negative equity. Written by admin on October 19, 2016 8211 6:06 pm It8217s not just those struggling to break into the property market that need to cut back on smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread . Interest rates might be at record lows, but delinquency rates have hit record highs in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. In South Australia, delinquency rates are just 0.1 per cent shy of the record. The housing bust in Western Australia and wage deflation has contributed to mortgage arrears hitting 2.33 per cent, surging 0.69 per cent in the past year. Nationally, delinquencies have risen in every state and territory. The number of delinquent mortgages in Australia is at three year highs and is likely to rise further, according to Moodys Investors Service. Mortgage holders more than 30 days late on their mortgage currently stands at 1.5 per cent, and is nudging towards the 1.59 per cent record recorded in April 2013. Australians have the highest level of household debt in the world. Written by admin on September 15, 2016 8211 7:59 pm Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called on Australians to be prudent towards excess household debt, saying interest rates will not always remain low. Its not for me to give lectures on household finance but I think most Australians are very alert to the fact that while interest rates are low they havent always been low and that youve got to be prudent in terms of your borrowing, he told the West Australian Newspaper. Its up to the Reserve Bank to maintain financial stability, and they have a number of levers, interest rates being the most obvious one, to address excessive borrowing if thats the right term. In the March quarter, household debt as a percentage of household income continued to climb to 187 per cent on the back of emergency low interest rates. Australians carry the highest level of household debt of anyone in the world. This burdening and record high household debt level has caused Moodys Investors Service issue a recent warning that Australian banks will be in uncharted territory when the nations households have to contend with an economic downturn. The resilience of household balance sheets and, consequently, bank portfolios, to a serious economic downturn has not been tested at these levels of private sector indebtedness, Ilya Serov, senior vice-president at Moodys Financial Institutions said. Written by admin on August 13, 2016 8211 8:21 pm Foreign investors in Australian real-estate will need to conduct their own sound due diligence after it has been revealed one of the countries leading house price indices has been overstating growth. But it is not the only problem they face. Australia8217s central bank has been forced to drop using a home price index from CoreLogic after the bank said it is 8220overstating8221 house price growth. In a country obsessed with real estate, everyone used CoreLogic statistics as it always portrayed strong, perpetual growth regardless of actual market performance. The last monthly update, published on the 1st August found Adelaide dwellings surged a stunning 1.4 percent in the month of July. Sydney was up a hot 1.3 per cent and Melbourne 1.1 per cent. Corelogic boasted, 8220Capital city dwelling values reach a record high in July8221 As of the 31st of July according to Corelogic, Sydney8217s median dwelling price was 775,000 down from 780,000 the month earlier (yes down), Melbourne was 585,000 down from 587,500 a month earlier (yes down) and Adelaide was 417,500 down from 420,000 (no, no mistake 8211 down). This on its own is not a concern. The Corelogic Home Value index is a Hedonic index meaning the data is 8220massaged8221 to better track attributes of the property 8211 i. e. the number of bedrooms and bathrooms. But it had become a regular occurrence this year. Month after month, median down, index up. Sydney started the year with a median 800,000 dwelling price and closed last month at 775,000 according to Corelogic. Despite the fall, Sydney has recorded impressive monthly growth, 0.5 per cent (Jan), 0.5 per cent (Feb), 1.0 per cent (Mar), 2.4 per cent (Apr), 3.1 per cent (May), 1.2 per cent (Jun), 1.3 per cent (Jul). It is understood Corelogic made a 8220methodological change8221 in April and forgot to advise customers of the changes, including the Reserve Bank of Australia. If you have been in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane of late, no doubt you would have witnessed the sight of endless cranes. Australia is in the grips of an unprecedented apartment building boom. In the March quarter, according to the ABS, the private sector was building 150,706 8220other8221 residential dwellings, typically units and apartments. This is triple the roughly 50,000 only 6 years ago. Most of these dwellings are off-the-plan and are being built for foreigners. Investors put down, typically, a 10 per cent deposit and is required to pay the remainder when the apartment is complete. This could involve obtaining a loan with a bank when the time comes. 8220All the deals have been frozen8221 As we reported in May ( Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers ), Australia8217s Big 4 had started retracting and clamping down on loans to foreign investors after detecting widespread fraud. According to overseas mortgage brokers, many are now struggling to complete their purchases. Mark Yin, an agent with Shanghai-based Home Tree Group told the AFR, 8220All the deals have been frozen,8221 According to the report, nearly 100 per cent of his clients were unable to get finance from Australian banks. Most were buying apartments in the Melbourne CBD. 8220I have now stopped dealing in Australian property,8221 he said. Lanny Xu, CEO of Iron Fish China said about 20 per cent of her clients were trying to on sell apartments after failing to obtain loans. For local buyers, the oversupply of apartments have seen prices fall. Banks are valuing the apartment at settlement and many are coming up short. In Melbourne8217s Docklands, CBD and Southbank, apartments are selling at up to 24 per cent discounts to the off-the-plan price. According to a recent article in the AFR, off the plan apartment sales in Brisbane8217s inner city is down 44 per cent in the last quarter. ( Brisbane apartment sales collapse, settlements now key focus for developers ) Written by admin on July 7, 2016 8211 8:57 pm Years of spending beyond our means has caught up with Australia today, with ratings agency Standard and Poor8217s lowering Australia8217s credit rating outlook to negative. While Australia retains its prized AAA credit rating for now, it is a strong warning Australia could lose its coveted credit rating if our budget position fails to improve. In a statement, Standards and Poor8217s said, 8220There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 One such improvement could be the grandfathering of negative gearing and the reduction of the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent, forecast to save tax-payers over 6 billion a year. Standard and Poor8217s later today placed NSW, Victoria and the ACT on a negative outlook indicating 8220no state entity can receive a higher rating than the Commonwealth of Australia.8221 Subsequently, for similar reasons our big four banks 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC and NAB were placed on a negative outlook. S038P remarked, 8220The negative outlooks on these banks reflect our view that the ratings benefit from government support and that we would expect to downgrade these entities if we lower the long-term local currency sovereign credit rating on Australia8221 S038P described government debt as low, but indicated its biggest concern is Australia8217s 8220high external and household indebtedness8221. 8220A portion of Australia8217s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s.8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Approximately 30 per cent of bank funding comes from external wholesale markets, exposing Australia to external shocks. Ireland was in a similar situation pre GFC with low government debt and significantly high household debt. When the Irish people could no longer service their mounting debts, the banking system buckled, the government was forced to bail out them out, effectively shifting the household debt onto the balance sheet of the government. Written by admin on July 3, 2016 8211 9:00 pm Australia8217s trek to the polls on Saturday has resulted in a nail biting, too close to call result. At the conclusion of counting at 2am Sunday morning, the ALP had 67 seats, LNP 8211 65 and the minor parties have picked up five. 13 seats remain in doubt with counting to resume on Tuesday. The results suggest Australia could be heading for a hung parliament and three years of political deadlock for economic reform and attempts to rein in spending. Such a deadlock could spell the end of Australia8217s coveted AAA credit rating with speculation Australia could be put on credit watch negative within weeks. The consequent loss of the triple AAA credit rating will not only make government debt more expensive, but it will result in a spate of downgrades for Australian banks and companies and potentially result in the rise of mortgage rates due to banks over reliance of wholesale funding. The downgrade will also be a blow to confidence. Australia8217s total debt surges to 254 per cent of GDP The loss of our AAA credit rating was going to eventually happen, regardless of the outcome of the election. There has been speculation looming about the loss for months. An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release last Thursday tallied another record high for Australian debt levels. Total debt racked up by households, the public sector and business (but excluding finance companies) totaled 254 per cent of GDP for the first quarter to March. Households8217 insatiable appetite for a slice of the Australian housing bubble, and at any cost, made the largest contribution to total debt levels at 125 per cent of GDP. Australian households remain the most indebted in the world as a percentage of GDP. A significant risk is our big banks8217 reliance on overseas wholesale funding to support the residential mortgage market. As the world increasingly questions the Australian miracle and recalculates risk, the spreads of this wholesale funding will increase. According to the Courier Mail, analyst, John Steiner from United States based Hedgeye Risk Management has recommended investors short Australia8217s big four banks. He believes the housing oversupply and falling demand has signaled Australia8217s housing market is in a bubble and is about to blow. Business debt now sits at 84 per cent of GDP, while Government debt ticks up to 47 per cent of GDP. Earlier this year when total debt was only 243 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley calculated for every dollar of extra GDP growth, Australia accumulated an extra 9 worth of debt. At the time, Daniel Blake, a Sydney based economist for Morgan Stanley said Australia needs to urgently find other sources of growth that are less debt-intensive rather than the hugely leveraged property market. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. Sie sagte. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Indian Techies Can039t Be Trained On New Tech Not True, Says Mohandas Pai Nifty May Hit Fresh All-Time High In Next Week, Says Ruchit Jain Expect 20 Upside In Karur Vysya Bank: Sanjiv Bhasin V-Mart Retail Sees 8-10 Same Store Sales Ahead Datamatics Global Services On Philippines Arm How The Union Budget Is Prepared Union Budget: Few Terms You Should Know 17-Year-Old Indian-Origin Entrepreneur Features In Forbes List They Made It To Forbes Ranking Of Highest Grossing Actors 2016 Indian Banker Makes It To Fortune List Of Top 50 Business Persons